Shell predicts the death of petrol cars, but not until 2070

Shell oil company has predicted that by the year 2070 conventionally-engined cars could be killed off. Using future scenarios to build plausible decisions for what lies ahead, Shell has called into question the future of oil-fuelled cars.

Shell’s incredibly detailed 46-page analysis of future fuels and economic scenarios stated: ‘By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free. Towards the end of the century an extensive hydrogen infrastructure rollout displaces oil demand for long haul and heavy loads.’

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Toyota has already made its first steps into the world of hydrogen-powered vehicles, with the FCV Concept unveiled in almost-production form at the Tokyo Motor Show last November. In theory, hydrogen vehicles will offer customers zero emissions motoring without the range anxiety associated with electric cars. While a hydrogen-refuelling infrastructure is yet to be put in place in the UK, stations along key routes such as the M4 and M1 will begin to emerge when the Toyota FCV arrives next year.

However, Shell does continue to say the demand for oil has yet to reach its peak. ‘Entirely removing oil from road transport worldwide is a truly colossal undertaking. With reduced growth of travel demand, increased vehicle efficiency, and natural gas, electricity and hydrogen increasingly in use, liquid fuels for passenger road transport decline after a global peak in 2035.’

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