Diesel prices predicted to soar into 2027, and they're quite high now

The cost of filling up your tank has dramatically increased this year thanks mainly to ongoing conflict in Iran and the Middle East. Now, new data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggests British motorists could be set for further pain at the pumps in 2027 - especially those running diesel cars.

Global oil prices rose to an average of $91 per barrel in August, $7 higher than the peak in July and in September they spiked to $108. This has a knock-on effect for fuel prices not just in the US, but across the globe, as UK motorists have recently found out. Petrol car owners are currently dishing out an average of 172p a litre, but it’s bleaker for diesel drivers with the fuel up to 196p per litre according to the latest data from the RAC.

The outlook into 2027 doesn’t appear good for diesel either. The EIA forecasts the US distillate fuel oil reserves, often sold as diesel, will drop below 100 million barrels and will remain at a lower level than the last five years. The most recent data from EIA says total US diesel inventories have been reduced to 107.9 million barrels - the lowest number at this time of year since records began in 1982. As the US is a key supplier of diesel to the global market, a lack of reserves means a knock-on effect that indirectly impacts how much UK car owners are paying to refill their fuel tanks. 

Why are diesel prices still so important?

Sales of new diesel cars in the UK have fallen dramatically to just 4.8% of the market in August 2026, that’s from a peak in 2015/16 where diesel accounted for around 48% of the UK car market. The number of models being offered with diesel engine options is at its lowest for many years, with Auto Express research in 2025 showing that only 91 new cars were available with diesel engines compared to 240 in 2015. Today, it’s lower still.  

Against this backdrop it’s easy to overlook the huge impact that record diesel fuel prices can have on the economy. There are still around 11 million diesel passenger cars in the UK, 30 per cent of all cars on our roads. But diesel's primary importance remains its status as the lifeblood of British industry and its supply chains. 

While many motorists running private cars can choose to drive less and escape expensive fuel prices, businesses running the diesel vans and HGVs that keep the economy moving have no choice but to carry on, pay the higher prices and pass some, or all, of those costs onto consumers. Average diesel prices closing in on £2 per litre threaten the kind of general price inflation that will hit motorists, whether they drive a diesel, petrol or electric car.

Experts predict that tightening global supplies of distillate fuel oil will continue to result in rising prices at the pumps for consumers, but the EIA does say US crude oil production will increase from 13.8 million barrels in 2026 to 14.3 million barrels in 2027, which should help counteract the choking of supplies caused by Saudi Arabia’s recent closure of its critical East-West pipeline, the ongoing war in Ukraine and Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

For UK motorists, things look pretty grim and it seems that prices for diesel might get worse before they get better. 

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