Will the Iran war push up UK petrol prices?
The price of a barrel of oil jumped from $73 to around $80 over the weekend and there could be more to come
Fuel prices have the potential to climb sharply amid the ongoing conflict in Iran and the wider Middle East. The price of oil has risen by almost 10 per cent over the weekend and experts are predicting that this will soon be felt at UK fuel pumps.
Between the evening of Friday 27 February and Sunday 1 March, the price of Brent crude oil – the type typically used for the manufacture of petrol – rose from $73 to $80 per barrel. This is the highest it’s been since last June when the U.S dropped its so-called ‘bunker-buster’ bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The RAC’s head of policy, Simon Williams, pointed out that: “Forecourt prices were already on the rise due oil trading nearer to $70 a barrel in the last few weeks. Regardless of the current situation, petrol rose by a penny a litre in February and is likely to go up by another penny in the next week or so to an average of 134 pence per litre.”
“If oil were to climb to and stay at the $80 a barrel mark, then drivers could expect to pay an average of 136 pence for petrol,” said Williams. A two pence per litre difference from 134 pence could cost already-cash-strapped drivers an extra £1 per fill-up. “At $90, we’d be looking at over 140 pence a litre (over £2 more per fill-up) and $100 would take us nearer to 150 pence (over £3 more), but it’s all too soon to know.”
It is worth noting that despite increasing tensions – reports suggest Iran has already attacked two oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz – the price of oil remains well below the highs seen during Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine. At the start of Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in February 2022, the cost of oil soared to $114 per barrel, rising a few months later to a peak of $119. This pushed the price of petrol paid by UK motorists all the way up to 191 pence per litre, costing drivers an eye-watering £31 extra per fill-up compared to current prices.
With this in mind, there is no guarantee things will get as bad as they did a few years ago; “While the conflict in the Middle East undoubtedly has the potential to push up pump prices in the UK, it’s not a certainty. The oil price would have to rise significantly and stay that way for some time to have a dramatic effect,” says Williams.
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