Skip advert
Advertisement

Petrol price cuts forecast, as recession fears hit global oil market

US Energy department predicts Trump’s trade war will drive down demand and prices

Petrol station

Fears that US president Trump’s tariff and trade war will lead to global recession continue to dampen global oil prices, with petrol and diesel prices expected to fall as a result.

Last week, the RAC predicted the price of petrol could fall to 130p a litre, down from 136p at forecourts before Easter, based on oil trading at approximately $65 (roughly £50) per barrel on the global market. 

Advertisement - Article continues below

Yet analysts’ projections of weakened economies reducing global demand caused the price to slip further, with West Texas Intermediate crude at $60 per barrel and Brent Crude at $63 on Friday 11 April. 

Typically, oil producers respond to falling prices by cutting production, but recently the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) group of nations surprised markets by going ahead with a pre-tariff plan to increase production. It led some pundits to speculate the Gulf states were responding to US pressure to lower pump prices for US citizens as a perceived dividend for Trump’s economic strategy.

Analysts at banking company, Citi, forecast that Brent Crude would trade at $60 a barrel for the next three months, while an analyst at Danske Bank said OPEC’s decision “effectively means there is no longer anybody around to catch a falling oil price”, adding that a developing trade war could see prices “drop below $60 a barrel and further".

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) – the statistics department of the Department of Energy – has lowered its projections for both oil prices and demand, suggesting the world will need 400,000 fewer barrels this year as a direct result of economic slowdown. It’s currently forecasting an average price of $61 per barrel of Brent Crude in 2026, which would mean cheaper fuel prices could be around for a while.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said: “With the cost of a barrel of oil now at its lowest cheapest since the pandemic in April 2021, wholesale fuel costs are falling fast – putting more pressure on retailers to cut pump prices.”

Come and join our WhatsApp Channel for the latest car news and reviews...

Skip advert
Advertisement
Current affairs and features editor

Chris covers all aspects of motoring life for Auto Express. Over a long career he has contributed news and car reviews to brands such as Autocar, WhatCar?, PistonHeads, Goodwood and The Motor Trader.

Find a car with the experts

Skip advert
Advertisement

Most Popular

Car Deal of the Day: A Volkswagen Golf R Estate for less than a GTI
VW Golf R Estate - front cornering

Car Deal of the Day: A Volkswagen Golf R Estate for less than a GTI

The Golf R Estate is one of the best performance estates around – and right now it’s criminally cheap. It’s our Deal of the Day for 9 June.
News
9 Jun 2025
New BYD Dolphin Surf Comfort review: the best BYD yet
BYD Dolphin Surf Comfort - front

New BYD Dolphin Surf Comfort review: the best BYD yet

The new BYD Dolphin Surf Comfort is arguably the Chinese brand's most convincing model in its range
Road tests
11 Jun 2025
Best cars to own: Driver Power 2025 results
Driver Power 2025 - header

Best cars to own: Driver Power 2025 results

The best new cars to own in the UK right now according to the people who already do. It’s the 2025 Driver Power results!
News
10 Jun 2025